In the medium term it will, not least because people won’t know what it means. Indeed, it might marginally improve the longer term outlook. The short term would inevitably see considerable uncertainty about the reaction of the Scots, the terms of an exit and the consequences particularly for financial services trade. The immediate impact next year would most likely come through a sharp increase in business uncertainty, delayed investment and potentially currency volatility. The uncertainty would be intense, and the short term effects significantly adverse. I have little doubt that if the UK were to leave the EU, we could cope relatively well on our own in the longer term, but it would cast a considerable pall over the immediate subsequent two years, or so.

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